Every price we’ve quoted, against what actually happened.
On Runtil the price is the probability: pay 24¢ a contract, get a complete $1 if your read lands.
average price paid48.9¢
of those contracts hit48.4%
the gap−0.5 pt
01
Price against outcome
Each dot is a 10¢ bucket of contracts: what traders paid, against how often those contracts hit.
% of contracts that hitfair pricedot = contracts
the average trade40¢ – 50¢
paid45.5¢
hit rate43.0%
gap−2.5 pt
contracts1,265
5 of 10 buckets land within two points; the widest miss is 3.5.
02
Where it's off
The same test, cut by window and by market.
| window | contracts | avg price, ¢ | hit rate, % | gap, pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | 11,787 | 49.0¢ | 48.6% | 0.4 pt |
| 2m | 6 | 17.2¢ | 16.7% | 0.5 pt |
| 5m | 430 | 48.3¢ | 46.0% | 2.3 pt |
| 15m | 887 | 48.9¢ | 47.6% | 1.3 pt |
| 20m | 1 | 15.0¢ | 0.0% | 15.0 pt |
| 1h | 77 | 48.3¢ | 46.8% | 1.5 pt |
| 4h | 4 | 57.3¢ | 25.0% | 32.3 pt |
| 15h | 2 | 1.0¢ | 0.0% | 1.0 pt |
| 1d | 8 | 41.8¢ | 37.5% | 4.3 pt |
03
The protocol
How it arrives at a price stays ours. Every price it has ever written is on-chain, so the only claims worth making are the ones anyone can re-run — these four, and the chart above.
- $0.00
- protocol P&L from outcomesEvery contract is collateralised at a full $1 from the market’s own stake pool before it opens.
- 0.00¢
- spread between accountsIdentical inputs return identical cents, in the same block, for a 5-contract order and a 20,000-contract order alike.
- 0.0 pt
- what the fee costs youA variance fee, added to your cost and frozen at signature. It is written on every published row, alongside the size it was charged on.
- 100%
- of hits paid a complete $1.00Per contract. Never pro-rated, discounted or clawed back.
04
The data is public
Every settled contract is published as one row — its price, its size, the fee it paid, its target, its outcome. This page is only that file, grouped by price, so every number on it can be recomputed from source.
data.runtil.com05
Definitions
- the gap
- The share of contracts that hit, minus the cents paid, per bucket. Zero means the price was the odds. Averages are contract-weighted.
- buckets
- Contracts are grouped by the cents paid, in 10¢ steps: the 30¢ bucket is every contract priced above 20¢ up to 30¢.
- the data
- Every settled contract is on data.runtil.com; this page is that file aggregated — no sampling, nothing excluded.