How prices are set

A contract's price is a probability. 25¢ means the chance of reaching that target, in the time you've chosen, is judged to be about 25%. Every contract pays $1.00 if it hits, so the price is simply what that chance is worth.

That's why a target further away costs less, and why the same target costs more the longer you give it.

Three things drive it: how far your target sits from the current price, how long the trade has to get there, and how much that market has actually been moving lately. Runtil measures that movement continuously from the live feed and runs it through a mathematical model that turns those inputs into a single number — the chance of touching your target before time runs out.

The same model runs on your device and on our servers, from the same inputs, and the two have to agree. When you confirm, the price is checked again server-side; if the market has moved against you by more than a small tolerance in that instant, the trade is rejected rather than filled at a materially worse price.

Pricing doesn't know who you are. There is no per-account spread, no widening for accounts that win, and no better price for larger balances. Two people setting the same target on the same market at the same moment see the same number.

The other side of your trade comes from pooled liquidity, so you never wait for someone to take the opposite view before your trade can open.

A 90¢ contract is a claim that it reaches its target about 90% of the time. Every settled contract is published at data.runtil.com — price, outcome, duration, distance and the transaction it settled through. Group them by price and see whether the claim holds. If our pricing were systematically off, that file is where it would show.